MARKET SIZING & FORECASTING
Knowing the size of the addressable market for both existing and new products and services, or even product concepts not yet under development, is a vital and basic first step in any business plan. Despite the best intentions, however, this is a task that we have often seen poorly executed.
At the macro level, it is often very difficult for a company team to be completely objective about a product or concept that they are responsible for and intimately familiar with – arguably too familiar with. While this problem sometimes results in an unfairly pessimistic forecast, it more often manifests itself as an unrealistically optimistic forecast.
At the micro or tactical level, internal teams often lack the time and/or the end-user knowledge that is needed to develop an accurate and actionable sizing and forecast. End-user knowledge is especially an issue with clients who sell primarily through distribution channels, but clients who sell primarily direct often have weak knowledge of their non-customers.
Key issues that should be considered include:
- Identifying current and potential customers by company size and type
- Identifying competing offerings and how they may impact your own market
- Placing specific offerings at the appropriate place along their life cycle curve, and identifying the structure (i.e. how quickly do similar products ramp up? how long do they sustain high growth rates?) and time span of the curve
- Identifying specific obstacles to success (usually related to specific customer categories) that will or may limit the market potential
- Considering bandwidth or resource issues such as too few distributors or an insufficient number of salespeople
CPS Research International regularly assists clients with market sizing and forecasting. Our company has dedicated and experienced research staff to help you with these activities, either as a standalone project or as a key part of a larger activity such as assessing the prospects for a proposed new product.
In many cases, a standalone market sizing and forecast can be performed very cost-effectively using our deep knowledge of reliable secondary data source, our own extensive database of non-proprietary primary research, sound technical approaches to statistical analysis and modeling, and the depth and breadth of our professional staff’s experience in the key industries and product categories that our clients serve. In other cases, we may recommend primary research in the form of structured surveys and/or in-depth interviews. In either case, the result will usually include multiple scenarios with explanations of the factors that would favor one scenario over another, actionable recommendations on how to improve the projected results, and key potential problems to guard against.
NB: Contact CPS Research International to discuss how we can help you with your market sizing and forecasting.